Special Taipan Sector Alert: Oil Spike Endangering U.S. Trucking

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"We just can't afford to drive anymore!"

That's what a truck driver told a reporter recently, as he sat on the side of the road. The cost of diesel fuel had simply exceeded any sort of paycheck shippers were offering.

And it's not like this is some kind of sad sack story. With diesel as high as five bucks a gallon, truckers across the country are simply refusing to pick up loads.

While that price may be the local high seen on pumps in central California, the average price of $4.497/gallon across the country makes for a 60% annual increase, nearly three times regular gasoline's rate of increase.

Remember when diesel was the "cheap alternative fuel"? Curious as to how it got so darned pricey?

The U.S. Energy Information Agency blames it on the fact that diesel is almost the exact same distillate as home heating fuel and jet fuel:

Since September 2004, the price of diesel fuel has been generally higher than the price of regular gasoline all year round for several reasons. Worldwide demand for diesel fuel and other distillate fuel oils has been increasing steadily, with strong demand in China, Europe, and the U.S., putting more pressure on the tight global refining capacity.

In the U.S., the transition to low-sulfur diesel fuel has affected diesel fuel production and distribution costs. Also, the Federal excise tax on diesel fuel is 6 cents higher per gallon (24.4 cents per gallon) than the tax on gasoline.

- EIA's "Diesel Fuel Prices: What Consumers Should Know"

The plain and simple story? Shippers are getting squeezed hard.

The Chart


When Oil Shoots Up, Transports Break Down


It seems like the most intuitive of trading theorems: Shippers use fuel to move goods and people around the world, so when oil skyrockets, the shipping stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Transports cost to operate shoots up, too.

In good times, the shippers can pass these costs on through raw material producers, manufacturers and retailers and on to "end-users" (that's us!). This is how crude oil inflation can infect an entire economy.

In bad times, when regular folks are caught between a rock and a hard place, customers balk and shipping sales and profits fall off a cliff. Note that oil and the Transports ran neck and neck until last May 2007. We got our first look at just how bad things can get when this critical sector fell 9%.

Now we are seeing the exact same sell signal all over again. Only this time, oil is rising twice as fast.

Here are five trucking and delivery service stocks you must sell immediately:

Stock
Current Price*
Target Price
FedEx Corporation (FDX:NYSE)
$79.77
$56.23
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS:NYSE)
$61.40
$53.18
C.H. Robinson Worldwide CHRW:NASDAQ)
$57.38
$43.81
JB Hunt Transport (JBHT:NASDAQ)
$34.14
$23.89
Con-way Inc (CNW:NYSE)
$46.92
$38.93

*Close 06/25/08


If you wish to be more aggressive, you might choose to purchase put options against these stocks. Our projected losses for any of the five could easily double the cash value of select contracts.

Adam
 

P.S. I cover profit opportunities like these on a regular basis in my service, WaveStrength Options Weekly (WOW). My next alert is scheduled for this Tuesday. If you join today, I can give you an amazing offer… six months of WOW for FREE. Learn all about this in our exclusive report.

 

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