Time magazine has chosen Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, as 2007 “Person of the Year.”
Time reminds us that this isn’t an endorsement or a thumbs up. Hitler was Time’s man of the year once, and Stalin twice. Not to say Putin has become a mini-Stalin just yet. So far, he is more like an uber-connected mafia boss. But who can say what the future holds?
Putin does not bother with charm, Time reports. He is calculating and brisk, with almost no visible sense of humor. His intellect is quick and sharp -- a weapon he is not afraid to wield. If Russia’s president were to order vodka on the rocks, one imagines the ice cubes in the drink would not melt.
Could George Bush really have called this man “Pootie-Poot”? The mind boggles.
All that cold steel is apparently just what Russia needs these days. Putin rules with an iron fist, and the people love him for it. He enjoys 70% approval ratings and the perception of being Russia’s linchpin. There is even a pro-Putin youth movement and a pro-Putin children’s division.
Kremlin-watchers believe Putin could be worth $40 billion -- that’s billion with a “B” -- thanks to a complicated web of ownership stakes. Nothing in his actual name, of course. Just an impenetrable paper trail of entities and partnerships, leading back to quiet offices in Switzerland and Liechtenstein. Eat your heart out, Tony Soprano.
Russia matters because of oil and gas. Only Saudi Arabia exports more oil. (Russia is also estimated to hold a quarter of the world’s natural gas deposits.) There is also the small matter of nuclear technology, mineral and timber deposits, geopolitical relations with China and the Middle East, and so on.
The man’s timing was near perfect. Putin came to full power in 1999, just as the price of oil was bottoming out. He inherited the mantle of leadership just as Russia was hitting rock bottom, financially and psychologically.
Thanks to oil, Russia has since gone from $200 billion in debt to hundreds of billions in the black. Incomes are rising. National pride is swelling. Democracy has been gutted, but no one minds that so much.
After the wall came down in 1989, democracy was supposed to usher in a new era for Russia. The ‘90s turned out to be a disaster. Everything fell apart. The criminal element took over. No one really knew what was going on. Things didn’t really improve until a firm hand stepped back in. This new mix of authoritarianism and mafia capitalism is a better deal for ordinary Russians. That’s the perception, anyway.
Stanislov Belkovsky, a Russian political expert, believes Putin is ultimately a businessman who thinks all problems can be solved with money.
“He is quite sure of this,” Belkovsky says. “A problem that can't be resolved with $1 billion can be resolved with $10 billion, and if not with $10 billion then $20 billion, and so on."
At least one thing is certain: Putin is an intensely pragmatic man… and an intensely dangerous man. This is someone for whom the ends always justify the means. (Ever notice how those who cross the Kremlin tend to wind up in jail or dead? Funny thing, that.)
We can’t be certain what will come next. You get the sense this guy could do anything… anything with a cold compelling logic to it, that is. Alliances, morals, ideals… They’re all just pieces on the chessboard.
Earlier this year, for example, Putin endorsed a new Russian history manual. The book would normally have been “gathering dust on bookshelves,” The Economist reports. But Putin’s endorsement has made it “one of the most discussed books of the year.”
The purpose of the book is to encourage patriotism among Russian youth. This is done by rewriting history -- Russia did not actually lose the cold war, the new text argues -- and recasting Stalin in a more favorable light. Furthermore, what Stalin did was supposedly “demanded,” (i.e., nothing to apologize for, given the “circumstances of the cold war”).
Stalin as a quietly flawed hero? Western relations heading for deep-freeze? One wonders where this could be going.
We’ll be watching Russia closely in 2008. Meanwhile, Chris Dehaemer has been watching new energy developments in Brazil. Have a look here.
Warm Regards,
JL
