Every now and then, Maryland delivers up the most pleasant weather in the world. Not but so often, mind you. For most of the year, it is either unbearably hot and humid, or a strange sort of damp cold that worms its way past any sweater.
But the past few days at the Lass family redoubt have been about as nice as anywhere on the planet, with idyllic sun-filled days that just touch 80 degrees, and delicious evenings replete with magnolia-scented breezes.
The air conditioning is off, both at work and at home. Instead we have all opened windows, and as I sit to type this missive, I can hear the sound of folks conversing amiably as they walk past on their way toward Baltimore’s waterfront.
More than a few of my friends and colleagues have taken advantage of this break in the heat to bicycle to work. One has even gone so far as to sell her sedan outright and purchase an adorable little Chinese-made scooter.
I am told by many correspondents that this is a trend across the country. In point of fact, sky-high gas and electricity costs have induced folks to mend their ways as much as possible. Thermostats have been lowered, vacations curtailed and SUVs parked.
Washington tells us that for the past four weeks, gasoline demand is down about 1.6% year over year. And the American Automobile Association notes that the average price at the pump is down some 40 cents to a mere $3.17 per gallon.
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What’s more, we are told that crude inventories spiked some 9.4 million barrels last week. Crude futures for September delivery are down to a paltry $112.93 a barrel.
Is our national nightmare finally over? Before you write off this whole “oil spike” episode as some sort of horrid ‘70s rerun, you might want to think things through a bit.
Whereas the oil-rich waters of the Gulf of Mexico have not been overly harassed by hurricanes this year, the ever-so-indecisive Tropical Storm Fay did manage to delay shipments en route, which are now just arriving. This has also contributed a great deal to the sudden swell in our reservoirs.
On the other hand, those fine folks who run our refineries are just as adept at keeping pace with demand when it goes up as when it goes down. Total gasoline inventories actually fell last week, by some 6.2 million barrels.
I don’t mean to bum you out on today of all days, when such gorgeous weather abounds.
But all of this dillydallying is about to be rendered moot...
“Break time is over! Everyone back on your head!” (That’s the punch line to a wonderful dirty joke... which I will be glad to relate after two stiff drinks at the next conference.)
In a few days, the empty roads about town will be replenished with school buses filled with glum children and depressed “post-vacation” drivers in need of a second cup of coffee.
And the chilling winds of winter are not far behind them. I somehow doubt that most of these new bikers will be interested when the roads are slick with cold rain.
Walk to the grocery store? Who the heck has time when the kids need to get their homework done and supper needs serving?
Windows will be closed, and you can only put on but so many sweaters before that thermostat gets cranked back up. And oil, gas, coal and electricity prices are going to get cranked up, too.
Just consider this tidbit from the Energy Information Agency’s August 12 Short-term Energy Outlook:
Despite this summer’s lull, the various energy-producing countries have been cranking out product at maximum capacity. (Perhaps a global recession will eventually impact overall demand, but the reality of that recession has yet to sink in.)
However, a return to the sobering days of fall and winter need not leave you in a funk. Standard & Poor’s Energy SPDR (XLE:AMEX) collects the top players in the oil patch into one convenient bundle. Its chart appears to have put in a solid bottom in and around $70, with signs of a turnaround already proliferating.
Now this is certainly a bit of speculation, as it were. All sorts of things could happen between now and December, when these calls enter their risky front month. Oil could be discovered in East Orange, New Jersey, for instance. Or a war might break out in the Caucasus.
What I can tell you for a fact is that fall always follows summer, and winter always follows fall. So enjoy these last precious days while you can.
