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Can Long Lines, Broken Machines and a Botched Election Sell Dishwashers?

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Whirlpool is off message and off task. Short them now for 30%-118% gains.

Normally I comment here on the expansive, historical and economic. However, sometimes the microcosm of one’s own home presents one with all he needs to know, investing-wise.

Recently, I made the mistake of wandering into the family room after my pack of savage squabbling Huns -- sorry, “two darling daughters” -- had finally retired to their bedrooms. It nearly caused my head to catch fire. But I learned something important in the end.

This is a time and place reserved for my wife. Her preference is to sit quietly in front of the TV, watching the cooking channel and folding laundry for an hour or so, while her blood pressure slowly reduces to a non-life-threatening level.

Suggestions like “Wouldn’t you rather watch…” or, “Honey, those don’t match…” are most certainly not well received.

Even if one has proper items for discussion -- such as which limb to sacrifice to the girls’ orthodontist, or the fact that the neighbor’s shed is on fire again -- it’s best to just keep one’s mouth shut and wait until her eyes lose that peculiar red glow.

I was waiting for just such a moment when Whirlpool’s latest TV commercial came on. Since I was in the process of developing a position on Whirlpool that very evening, I did not safely divert my eyes from the screen, as is my normal habit.

The backdrop of the ad appeared to be the interior of a public building, wherein about 15 citizens are queued up to vote. Apparently, the machines are not working.

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The folks in line got angry, the apparatchiks at the desk made excuses, and then suddenly the booth’s curtain flew open to reveal the Whirlpool repairman! “Here’s your problem, folks!” he exclaimed as he handed the attendant a large wad of mangled paper ballots with clearly visible hanging chads.

“Here we go again!” the clerk whined.

There were several things I wanted to do upon being threatened by broken machines, long lines and a rerun of one of our country’s least glorious electoral moments. Moaning and screaming were my first two reactions, until my wife told me sternly to “shut it.” Strangely enough, buying any new washing machine -- let alone a Whirlpool -- simply didn’t come to mind.

Now that I know how Whirlpool is blowing its marketing budget, my partner Bryan Bottarelli’s analysis makes perfect sense:

When I look at Whirlpool’s (WHR:NYSE) business model, I see a company with a $6.64 billion market cap, trading at a P/E ratio of 12.19, while making a razor-thin profit margin of 2.89%.

In strong economic times, making 2.89% on a high-ticket item like appliances makes you a lot of money. But in the heart of a market recession (like we have right now), I can’t see a company like WHR being able to maintain any upside momentum.

After all, millions of unsold U.S. homes are currently sitting on the market with brand-new WHR appliances. I would think that the market needs to work through this inventory before WHR can think of receiving a substantial amount of new sales. And therefore, the forward outlook, to my eye, is very weak.

Now WHR stock is a bit of an oddity right now. Most everyone else connected with the housing and home wares biz have been well and truly stomped on.

You wouldn’t expect a builder like Lennar (LEN:NYSE) to be up, and indeed it is not. You wouldn’t advise a friend to buy shares of a joint that sells nails and furnishings like Home Depot (HD:NYSE).

But WHR is still vainly trying to hold on to its 2008 highs. My WaveStrength Options Weekly charts tell us that even a simple short play ought to be good for some 30% gains over the next few months. However, the puts that Bryan and I recommended to WOW readers stand to gain as much as 118% off that same 30% drop.

Certainly something to cheer you up as you fold the wash, eh?


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