Conspiracy theorists, meet the Nostradamus of Novels: Tom Clancy.
My colleague and fellow analyst, Christian DeHaemer, and I were reading up on the latest news from the South Ossetia conflict between Russia and Georgia. We were passing articles back and forth, trying to determine what was really at the heart of the matter, and how it would affect the markets.
(Turns out, Russian markets aren't taking it too well... The ruble fell 1.6%.)
Then Chris turns to me and asks, "Have you ever heard of Ghost Recon?"
Back in 2001, military science novelist, Tom Clancy designed a video game called Ghost Recon. Here's the story's timeline...
The Russian Democratic Union, consisting of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, is formed in 2007, with the goal of reuniting the former Soviet Union states. Action comes to a head in April 2008, when ultra-nationalists seize total power in Russia and begin invading the Baltics and Georgia. U.S. Special Forces join with rebel factions in Tbilisi, Georgia, but can't hold back the Russian tide...
Earlier today, in real life, Russian planes flew over the presidential palace in Tbilisi.
This coincidence gave me chills. You can check out the real timeline for the current conflict in this article from Reuters.
The Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, says this conflict, in which Russia is supposedly supporting a separatist faction in Abkazia (an area in South Ossetia), is because Russia wants to control energy routes through the Caucasus.
Russia supplies much of the European Union's natural gas, and has never hesitated to use these resources to bully needy nations. Georgia has been an ally of Western Europe, and an oil pipeline runs through the tiny country, and is not under Russian control. A natural gas pipeline has been proposed that will also thwart the Russian's hold on energy resources flowing into Europe.
The International Herald Tribune outlines what's at stake.
I think this quote says it all: "'If Georgia collapses in turmoil,' [Marshall Goldman, a leading Russia scholar] notes, 'investors will not put up the money for a bypass pipeline.' And so, he concludes, Putin has done his best to destabilize the Saakashvili regime."
And that could have serious ramifications for the EU, and would certainly draw the U.S. further into the conflict.
Like I said, Tom Clancy may just be the Nostradamus of military science novels.
Watch for stronger language from both the EU and the U.S. if Russia does not cease fire.
