Who says all the news is darkness and woe? Editor Adam Lass has found an investable sweet spot that should brighten your day.
Grim.
Also ugly, bleak, harsh, severe and forbidding (and that’s just this week’s news).
I think the one thing we can all agree on is that things are tough out there right now. Even Wall Street’s perennial bulls and Washington’s most myopic Pollyannas are on board the bear market wagon now.
For years, my family has asked me about the market come dinnertime. Now my wife requests that such conversations are held behind closed doors: “We don’t want to scare the children, dear.” And even then, she will not listen until she has an adequate supply of chocolate to tide her through the latest horror stories.
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The 10% Have Got the 90% Tied Up in Knots
And we are probably better off than most: My paychecks clear the bank, our investments are actually doing reasonably well, and heck, our old rural Maryland farmette is even retaining value. Most all of our friends are in similarly secure circumstances.
She’s got little enough to complain about, but the news these days still frightens the bejeebers out of her. It’s that 90%-10% thing: Nine out of 10 folks have jobs right now (actually, in Maryland, it’s more like 19 out of 20), but the Ninety-Percenters are all worried that they will find a pink slip in the box on any given Monday morning.
Looking back over the past few weeks of columns here at TD, I can’t say I really blame folks for being a tad jittery. While it’s certainly all been the absolute truth, and direly important for you to know, it has been, as I said at the top of the column, grim almost beyond tolerance.
A Silver (Foiled?) Lining
So today, I went looking for something a touch happier. Surely there had to be someone out there making money. After all, the Ninety-Percenters may be scared, but they are still getting up and getting dressed every morning.
And you know? After much digging, I found a company that is making money, and they do it by making folks happy.
I’m serious: This is a guilt-free play. Well, perhaps just a little guilt, but only if you eat too much of their product in a single sitting.
I am speaking of the Brit candy bar king, Cadbury PLC (CBY:NYSE), which just affirmed guidance of 4% revenue growth for 2009.
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Too Glum by Half
In recent days, the wags have been fussing that the recession would cut into even such little pleasures as an occasional stick of gum. Maybe we wouldn’t even be able to afford a lemon and honey drop when the brisk winds of February and March render us cold and speechless.
Come on folks! As I said last on Monday, times are indeed tough, but not “lifeboat” tough. Both Cadbury Chief Todd Stitzer and I are pretty sure that we will all still manage a mid-afternoon snack while we weather the crisis.
With that in mind, Mr. Stitzer has worked tirelessly to insure that he can make a profit selling said snacks. Cadbury has spun off its drinks biz, cut costs by firing an entire tier of middle managers, and raised prices by about 10%.
Now that dime probably won’t dissuade my wife when she needs her sweet dark fix. But it looks to do wonders for CBY’s bottom line in 2009.
The Future Looks All… Chocolaty
Looking forward (Imagine: A CEO who can do that without begging the central bank for billions!), Stitzer et al. are looking to open a candy factory in Southern Poland (Yeah, that’s right, all you auto-industry investors: These food guys are opening a factory), where operating costs are substantially lower.
Cadbury’s prognosis is not entirely unalloyed: Even Stitzer admits that his business model is not depression-proof, but merely “recession-resistant.” Still, things are looking sunny enough for him to be speaking in terms of how soon Cadbury can regain the status of “World’s Biggest” – something it lost when Wrigley and Mars merged.
So help the guy out, folks: Buy your wife a Cadbury bar, and buy yourself a stick of gum or two while you’re at it. It’ll help you both with all that stress the next time you’re discussing markets… behind closed doors… where the children can’t hear.
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