Is stealing 177% from summer-dazed investors ironic? You betcha!
“…I gotta wear shades.”
Who says only Gen Xers can appreciate irony? Heck, François-Marie Arouet (a.k.a. Voltaire) was writing about “the best of all possible worlds” back in the heady days of 1759, when snotty wit like that could get you strung up by your thumbs in the Bastille.
Still, the line from Timbuk3’s 1986 hit by that name is particularly apropos – and particularly ironic – in all sorts of ways these days.
Did you catch Luxottica Group (LUX:NYSE)’s wild 15% rally last week? In case the name is unfamiliar to you, Luxottica is the Italian company that owns those stalwarts of the American mall, LensCrafters and Sunglass Hut, and those ultimate summer scene accouterments – Ray-Ban and Oakley sunglasses – so heavily pitched at same.
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Profits Down – Shares UP!
Now I should point out that LUX shares have been on a tear for some time now, rising some 57% since setting a six-year low back in March. Clearly the stock had more than a little momentum going into last week.
But even still, the reason buyers gave for this latest spike is worth noting: LUX’s first quarter income fell 23% to €80.4 million (roughly $108 million).
Now in normal times, one might expect news like this to have a slightly different effect. It seems intuitive that investors ought to prefer companies that are, well, actually making money?
Best? Worst? How About “The Weirdest of Times”
But these are not normal times.
We have a new president who is inventing trillions of new dollars and thousands of novel ways to spend those dollars. He is also inventing reams of new regulations and hiring hundreds if not thousands of new bureaucrats to enforce them.
After so much economic destruction, this is now the era of “Hope,” as in: “I hope the stocks I am buying will go up eventually. I have no real economic reason for believing that. I’m just tired of all this bad news and have decided to fly on faith here. Now take all your facts and figures and leave me alone!”
“But first: could you hand me my sunglasses, ‘cause man, it’s bright out there.”
When a Loss Ain’t a Loss
LUX qualifies as an absolute winner under this new “hope-based” regime. You see, the “experts” who watch sunglass companies for a living had slated LUX profits to come in around €66.5 million. So now they are pitching this not as a 23% slide but rather an amazing 21% victory!
I suppose this speaks to the point that all those folks who have been waving around copies of Akerlof and Shiller’s new tome, “Animal Spirits” are trying to make: When the herd is predisposed to buy, it will latch onto the thinnest of excuses to do so.
Corporate profits in the toilet? “We thought (in as much as we think at all) that it would be much worse.” Unemployment just shy of 10%? “Yeah, well, at least the rate of increase is slowing.” Our biggest banks are virtually bankrupt? “Now Washington will forgive the money they – that is to say you, me and most all of our descendents unto the third generation – ‘lent’ them.”
Animal (House) Spirits
Akerlof and Shiller’s (and their disciples in Washington) point is simplistic enough: “Mood is everything, so whatever you do, just don’t bring folks down, and it all will be okay in the end.”
And in the short run, they may even be right. Washington can buy an apparent rally. Heck, it’s been done countless times. Might even last a few months. Maybe it will take years for folks to notice that the inevitable side effects – a falling dollar and rising costs – are stealing real wealth away.
If Washington knows anything, it knows this: “Inflation is always a “later” thing, while recessions are very much a “now thing.”
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Summer Lovin’…
So they pump and pump, and stocks like LUX go up, and commodities like cotton and oil go up.
Hmmm: seems like a theme is brewing there. Sunglasses? Cotton towels? Gasoline? I’ve got it: It’s all about summertime fun! And where can you buy all of those things, and some sunscreen to boot? Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE)’s chart looks like it could pick up some 20% moving into summer. WMT September 50 Calls (WMT IJ) are trading for $325 a contract, and are carrying a delta of 0.57, indicating that they might gain 177% off that rise.
So there’s your tip, my friends. But take it with a grain of salt.
… And Blind Faith
“The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades” was always somewhat misunderstood. Just as Voltaire didn’t really believe that pre-revolution France was the best of possible places and times, Pat McDonald didn’t really mean for his song to become some kind of fist-pumping anthem for over-enthusiastic college graduates. Rather, he was trying to warn against blind optimism in the face of sobering facts.
So buy the damned rally already. It’s there. It’s real. It’s a “now thing.”
But keep in mind the inevitable hangover that follows drunken binges like this. That’s when you are really going to need to buy shades… and puts.
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written by James OBrien, May 11, 2009
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