When the December retail sales report was released last month, economists and traders were expecting a number that was not only going to beat expectations, but send a message that the U.S. consumer was back and ready to roll. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case.

The holiday shopping season, known as the peak month for retail sales, offered demoralizing data that created more concern and anxiety for retailers searching for a way to get consumers to spend again. The outlook is grim, and explains why retail giants Macy’s, Inc. and Wal-Mart recently announced massive layoffs to come in the next few weeks.

The pessimism can quickly evaporate this week, though, as the retail sector is set to receive data on January sales. The Wall Street consensus is looking for an increase of 0.4%, primarily as a result of an increase in hiring and easier access to retail credit.

The consensus estimate also received a bit of validation this morning when chain-store sales reported an increase of 1.8% in retail sales for the week ending Feb. 6 from the same year-ago period. The report, which was released by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs, said on a week-over-week basis, sales rose 1.4% due to Super Bowl shopping and consumers stocking up ahead of the snowstorms that hit the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states.

The same group expects February retail sales to rise 2%, helped by easier year-ago comparisons and an improving economy.

U.S. retailers appreciate the optimism and are hoping January retail sales are just as nice. According to a survey conducted by Thomson Reuters of 29 major chain stores, including department stores, discounters and apparel sellers, retail sales have increased 3.3% compared to January 2009. Analysts had predicted a gain of 2.5% from the survey.

“It’s encouraging, looking at the January data, but the caveat is January and February are very low-volume months,” said Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, to the Los Angeles Times. He added that results were helped by an easy-to-beat January 2009. “But it does appear that the retail industry recovery is being sustained – it’s now multiple months of pretty solid performance.”

According to the Los Angeles Times, “retail analysts caution that most shoppers still aren’t spending freely as they continue to worry about their jobs, mortgages and credit. Although an industry turnaround is underway, they say U.S. retailers should be prepared for periods of sluggish spending during the year.”

“We believe the customer will shop, albeit more selectively, in 2010, focusing on value and the unique appeal of the product,” said Richard Jaffe, an analyst at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., in a note to investors Thursday.

All of the questions regarding the health of the American consumer will be answered when the Commerce Department releases its monthly retail sales figure for January this Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST.

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