Are American companies doing as well as they'd like us to believe? During the current earnings season, just about every closely watched earnings report reveals results that beat Wall Street analyst estimates, at least on the bottom line. As today's report from Boeing (BA:NYSE) shows, several bellwether firms have sorely missed their revenue forecasts.
That may be an indicator of trouble to come. After all, just about any company can manipulate the books, squeeze out costs and extend large cash outlays, but they can't record sales if the sales are not there.
Even though Boeing’s earnings dropped by 21% from a year ago and revenues fell nearly 10% to $15.57, company officials assure investors the slip is a one-time deal. With deliveries of 747-8s and 787s on schedule, Boeing says revenues will rise in coming months.
"With our commercial markets recovering, and the priorities of our government customers gaining clarity, we remain well positioned for growth in 2011 and beyond," said the company’s CEO, Jim McNerney.
Unfortunately, Boeing’s optimistic outlook does not jive with the latest report out of the Commerce Department. The folks in Washington tell us durable goods orders slipped unexpectedly by 1% last month. Most analysts expected an increase of that proportion.
"The number was weaker than expected and it could add to the idea that the economy is slipping into a double-dip recession," said Bruce Bittles of Robert W. Baird & Co.
The latest figures help illustrate the strong inventory rebuilding effort we saw earlier in the year is slowing. It is a sign corporate growth estimates were overdone and the pace of the economic recovery is less than most expected.
One sign of hope, however, comes from deep within the day's figures. Non-defense capital goods orders, the stuff businesses need in order to grow, marked an unexpected rise of 0.6% in June, continuing May's strong growth of 4.6%. Most experts expected no growth from the sector last month.
We can expect a better glimpse of the economy's recent growth on Friday, when the Commerce Department pulls the curtains on the second quarter’s growth estimates. Consensus estimates put the figures at a growth rate of 2.5%, down from last quarter's 2.7% figure.
Friday's figures could prove pivotal for a fence-sitting market. "On the one hand, there's a belief the market is 'cheap,'" said Uri Landesman, president of Platinum Partners. "On the other hand, there's still risk aversion out there."
If we get a GDP figure that shows growth is holding steady, the value-minded bulls may step in and take the markets higher. But if we get another round of disappointing news, the bears will be back in business.
There are a slew of earnings reports due out tomorrow and throughout the rest of the week. The recent drop in volatility may be coming to an end. Keep an eye on the earnings figures and be ready to trade Friday morning's GDP figures.
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